Towards a Competitive European Internet Industry

posted 9 Aug 2012 06:51 by Michael Boniface   [ updated 9 Aug 2012 06:52 ]
The FI3P Project has now published it's final report analysing the economic and social impact of Future Internet technologies within Europe, as well as EU support for the Future Internet Public Private Partnership. The report aims to:
  • Identify the key drivers and opportunities for the development of the European Internet industry, its growth and competitiveness;
  • Estimate the potential future economic contributions of the European Internet industry;
  • Estimate the economic impacts of the Future Internet PPP and its potential successor; and
  • Identify, assess and address the future barriers to competitiveness of the European Internet industry.
There's a useful executive summary and factsheet for those who want the elevator pitch. I could not help observing the final take away remark in the factsheet about the FI-PPP:

Under ideal conditions, effects unleashed by the FI PPP could contribute up to €28 billion per year to the EU economy, corresponding to 0.24% of EU GDP, while the projected effects of the FI PPP+ could be even higher

"Under ideal conditions" seems to be a key phrase and interesting optimistic headline. Digging more deeply you can find that the study made various model runs with different assumptions about  the success of FI PPP. The headline GDP contribution is based on the assumption "....that FI-Ware and all use cases are completely successful".  On p82 you will find the impact for FI-PPP should they be partially successful. Here two important conclusions are revealed. First, the  degree of success of the infrastructure activities (FI-Ware) and of the use cases both determine the overall macroeconomic impact of FI PPP. Second, the size of the GDP effect depends much more on the success of the use cases than on the success of the infrastructure related activities. In numbers, if the Core Platform is not successful and all the use cases are the contribution to GDP will be €24 bn. This will no doubt be a significant point for debate